Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016519 0.018692 0.021045 0.023784 0.026883 0.030284 0.034300
2025-09-21 0.012781 0.015703 0.019136 0.023471 0.028802 0.035152 0.043302
2025-09-28 0.010492 0.013634 0.017539 0.022752 0.029539 0.038092 0.049715
2025-10-05 0.009511 0.012943 0.017408 0.023648 0.032164 0.043405 0.059421
2025-10-12 0.008647 0.012247 0.017119 0.024206 0.034278 0.048123 0.068676
2025-10-19 0.007973 0.011703 0.016933 0.024818 0.036442 0.053009 0.078530
2025-10-26 0.007198 0.010914 0.016295 0.024676 0.037448 0.056262 0.086241
2025-11-02 0.006583 0.010286 0.015811 0.024679 0.038617 0.059788 0.094596
2025-11-09 0.005949 0.009558 0.015096 0.024237 0.039024 0.062136 0.101265
2025-11-16 0.005564 0.009180 0.014875 0.024531 0.040583 0.066363 0.111242
2025-11-23 0.005121 0.008664 0.014383 0.024327 0.041290 0.069241 0.119200
2025-11-30 0.004878 0.008453 0.014365 0.024894 0.043307 0.074407 0.131424
2025-12-07 0.004403 0.007812 0.013584 0.024114 0.042984 0.075645 0.137046
2025-12-14 0.004057 0.007366 0.013100 0.023806 0.043457 0.078293 0.145413
2025-12-21 0.003682 0.006834 0.012417 0.023077 0.043094 0.079400 0.151014
2025-12-28 0.003586 0.006803 0.012624 0.023986 0.045810 0.086296 0.168036
2026-01-04 0.003448 0.006679 0.012649 0.024551 0.047917 0.092213 0.183674
2026-01-11 0.003327 0.006577 0.012704 0.025173 0.050173 0.098580 0.200732
2026-01-18 0.003121 0.006291 0.012384 0.025028 0.050900 0.102019 0.212175
2026-01-25 0.002950 0.006059 0.012149 0.025032 0.051918 0.106100 0.225263
2026-02-01 0.002743 0.005738 0.011711 0.024583 0.051965 0.108206 0.234365
2026-02-08 0.002631 0.005602 0.011636 0.024881 0.053592 0.113689 0.251156
2026-02-15 0.002476 0.005366 0.011336 0.024675 0.054120 0.116890 0.263213